SHANTIGEAR | 40 Rs. | 5%
TANLA SOL. | 60 Rs. | 10%
JKLAKSHMI | 58 Rs. | 10%
INDIABULLS | 124 Rs. | 13%
ICSA | 134 Rs. | 10%
IBSEC | 30 Rs. | 6%
GESHIP | 266 Rs. | 22%
GEODESIC | 98 Rs. | 10%
AMARAJABAT | 60 Rs. | 14%
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This has been our journey so far. Very slow, very steady. But certainly not without mistakes. For e.g the latest Indage vintners: I always thought it would be a good contrarian bet. Thinking about it, i am more of a compulsive contrarian bettor than a momentum guy.
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Kelly criterion
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Lakshmi Machine Works
Lakshmi Machine Works
Talk about companies with fine moats and LMW cannot be far behind. Okay what is the moat? LMW is a practical monopoly in the textile machineries market in India as far as i know - It holds like 80% of the market share. It's been in the business for a loong time now. It's ROCE is something phenomenal. LMW is a debt free company to boot. It is currently selling at a discount to its book value. The free cash flows per share in the next five-ten years should be at least three times the current market price IMO.
Check out a businessworld article on LMW sometime back, aptly titled the survivor!
Talk about companies with fine moats and LMW cannot be far behind. Okay what is the moat? LMW is a practical monopoly in the textile machineries market in India as far as i know - It holds like 80% of the market share. It's been in the business for a loong time now. It's ROCE is something phenomenal. LMW is a debt free company to boot. It is currently selling at a discount to its book value. The free cash flows per share in the next five-ten years should be at least three times the current market price IMO.
Check out a businessworld article on LMW sometime back, aptly titled the survivor!
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Sanjay Bakshi articles
Sanjay Bakshi, who writes some interesting articles for Outlook profit has posted some of those below:
http://www.sanjaybakshi.net/Sanjay_Bakshi/Articles.html
http://www.sanjaybakshi.net/Sanjay_Bakshi/Articles.html
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Vakrangee
I am not sure whats the deal in Vakrangee software.
Figure this. The company's market capitalization is @ Rs.50 odd crores. Almost nil debt. And the company has declared an operating profit of about 100 odd crores last year. Whats more the company has an operating income of more than 50 crores in the six months ending Sep.30 2008. They also hold an investment worth Rs. 50 odd crores.
I understand there is no such thing as a risk-less investment but the odds of losing any in shares like Vakranjee should be way below any other investments that i can think of.
Figure this. The company's market capitalization is @ Rs.50 odd crores. Almost nil debt. And the company has declared an operating profit of about 100 odd crores last year. Whats more the company has an operating income of more than 50 crores in the six months ending Sep.30 2008. They also hold an investment worth Rs. 50 odd crores.
I understand there is no such thing as a risk-less investment but the odds of losing any in shares like Vakranjee should be way below any other investments that i can think of.
Sunday, January 4, 2009
Finolex cables
Finolex cables.
The current market price per share is Rs.25 and the current market capitalization is Rs.390 crores. A month before, it was trading at about 19 Rs. per share. The deal is, about 316 crores of that capitalization is covered by Finolex's investment value in the balance sheet. So essentially, we get the entire business for about Rs. 290 crores (which is the debt obligation).
When a business generates positive cash flows and earns an operating profit of about 100 odd crores a year, i would not be too worried about a Rs.290 crore debt.
Finolex's return on Net Operating Assets ( Net Profit divided by Fixed + Net current Assets) is about 20%.
Just to add more, Finolex's book value stands at 41 Rs per share.
To me this is a neat value story. The entire market wants to run hoping they get the next multi-baggers and in the process they ignore the certain 50 percentagers.
The current market price per share is Rs.25 and the current market capitalization is Rs.390 crores. A month before, it was trading at about 19 Rs. per share. The deal is, about 316 crores of that capitalization is covered by Finolex's investment value in the balance sheet. So essentially, we get the entire business for about Rs. 290 crores (which is the debt obligation).
When a business generates positive cash flows and earns an operating profit of about 100 odd crores a year, i would not be too worried about a Rs.290 crore debt.
Finolex's return on Net Operating Assets ( Net Profit divided by Fixed + Net current Assets) is about 20%.
Just to add more, Finolex's book value stands at 41 Rs per share.
To me this is a neat value story. The entire market wants to run hoping they get the next multi-baggers and in the process they ignore the certain 50 percentagers.
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Prajay Engineers
Prajay Engineers is another poignant story. A story which exemplifies the extent to which our markets can go either way when there is a swing.
We witnessed the stock scaling a peak in the four hundreds and also touching the abyss of Rs. 18.
The stock is currently trading at a steep discount to its liquidating value. Its enterprise value is a meagre Rs.210 crores (includes a debt of 107 crores).
The company has sales figures which stands at Rs.64 crores for the half year ended on Sep. 30. Even discounting the stimulation package from the govt for the real estate sector, I would assume the company can sell at least another Rs.60 Crores property in the next six months.
The Operating profit disclosed by the company for the first half of 2008-9 is Rs.22 crores. Assume the company can sustain the same in the next six months, we are likely to see Rs.44 crores. An operating return of Rs.44 crores for an investment of Rs.100 crores along with interest commitment of about Rs.10 crores is not a bad outlook at all for the investors in these times, provided people can wait.
I do not want to go by the last year results which I understand is unattainable for the next few years. But even providing for that, I think Prajay is easily one such share where current market price is way below its intrinsic value after factoring in a margin of safety.
We witnessed the stock scaling a peak in the four hundreds and also touching the abyss of Rs. 18.
The stock is currently trading at a steep discount to its liquidating value. Its enterprise value is a meagre Rs.210 crores (includes a debt of 107 crores).
The company has sales figures which stands at Rs.64 crores for the half year ended on Sep. 30. Even discounting the stimulation package from the govt for the real estate sector, I would assume the company can sell at least another Rs.60 Crores property in the next six months.
The Operating profit disclosed by the company for the first half of 2008-9 is Rs.22 crores. Assume the company can sustain the same in the next six months, we are likely to see Rs.44 crores. An operating return of Rs.44 crores for an investment of Rs.100 crores along with interest commitment of about Rs.10 crores is not a bad outlook at all for the investors in these times, provided people can wait.
I do not want to go by the last year results which I understand is unattainable for the next few years. But even providing for that, I think Prajay is easily one such share where current market price is way below its intrinsic value after factoring in a margin of safety.
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